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Historical flood review

Why research the history of flooding? Well, if one suspects that the catchment has no history of flooding prior to recent land-use changes, it is good to confirm this before arguing too hard that land-use change or climate change is to blame.

But what if the catchment has a forgotten history of flooding? Is it credible that the river system has undergone so much change that past vulnerability is no longer relevant?

Of course, it's easier not to bother researching the flood history, and get on with some interesting modelling. If the site floods later, you are safe in the knowledge that flood estimation is inherently uncertain. You can divert attention onto the wide variation between estimates by different methods ("These hydrologists can't make their mind up") or lay the blame on good-old climate change.

But don't be surprised if someone bites back by researching the local flood history. If the dice have rolled in such a way that the site has many large floods in its history, but none lately, it will be all too obvious that your design was based on a gross underestimate.

It's not all bad news. Knowledge that the site was untouched in an exceptional flood will confirm that the site is much less prone to flooding than others near the river.

Historical flood review isn't just for anoraks. It really is useful.

Tips for historical flood review

Download a copy of CEH guidance on the use of historical flood data in flood frequency estimation. But don't be too hooked on a particular way of using historical data. Knowing how many exceedances there have been of a locally meaningful high threshold can be enough to indicate whether the current flood estimate is reasonable.

Finally, urge Government to make meteorological data efficiently and freely available to all: to practitioners not just to academics.

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