Flood estimation

My R&D interests are wider than flood hydrology. I have a particular interest in applying statistical methods to hydrological and water-industry problems. A special R&D interest is collective risk estimation.

However, flood estimation R&D continues to play an important part in my professional life, and much of my consultancy experience centres on flood frequency estimation or event rarity assessment.

In most cases, you will need to allow for between 5 and 50 days of my time. Flood estimation is a serious business, and best estimates require considerable work in understanding the context of the problem and in gathering all the information that is potentially relevant. There is no substitute for a thoughtful study by an experienced hydrologist. Historical flood review can be an important element.

As if estimating very rare extremes was not challenge enough, reservoir flood safety applications introduce additional factors concerned with public safety, cost-efficiency and buck-passing. For reasons hinted at on the reservoir safety page, I will be reluctant to be drawn beyond the hydrological and flood frequency issues.

I have no aversion to expert witness work, and will be pleased to assist if the case looks well founded and calls for expertise in flood frequency estimation or event rarity assessment.

I've taught flood estimation methods on and off for more than 20 years, mainly based on the Flood Studies Report and, latterly, the Flood Estimation Handbook. This is my main area of training expertise.