Reed, D.W. 1987a. UK flood forecasting in the 1980s. In: "Weather radar and flood forecasting" (eds Kirby, C., Collinge, V.K.), John Wiley, 129–142.
The feasibility and success of a flood warning scheme depend on many factors: data acquisition and procedures for disseminating warnings are particularly important. However, it is in the development and application of flood forecasting methods that the hydrologist's skills are most relevant. It is convenient to distinguish between those methods based on flood routing and those based on rainfall-runoff. Although simple correlation techniques continue to find application in routing flood peaks, there is now considerable use of flood routing models such as the Muskingum-Cunge and variable parameter Muskingum-Cunge methods. A wide range of rainfall-runoff models have been developed for flood forecasting in the UK. These are discussed in this chapter under four groupings: unit hydrograph techniques, transfer function methods, conceptual models, and non-linear storage models, with particular mention of non-linear storage model applications.
This review highlights the special character of real-time applications of hydrological models and considers in detail the problem of how best to correct flood forecasts by reference to telemetered flow measurements. Three approaches are distinguished: error prediction, state-updating and parameter-updating. One general conclusion reached is that whereas standardization of methods is desirable in hydrological designs such as water resource assessment and flood estimation, the diversity of UK flood forecasting techniques in the 1980s is seen more as a strength than a weakness.