Reed, D.W., Anderson, C.W. 1992. A statistical perspective on reservoir flood standards. In: "Water resources and reservoir engineering" (eds Parr, N.M., Charles, J.A., Walker, S.), Thomas Telford Ltd, London, 229–239.
Reservoir flood standards in the UK require estimation of the probable maximum flood in many cases. Clear though the procedure summarized in the Floods and Reservoir Safety Engineering Guide is, many engineers and hydrologists view PMF with suspicion. Some struggle to accept the concept of an upper limit flood. Others question whether the recipe in the Flood Studies Report is satisfactory, and this has been expressed particularly in respect of the allowance for snowmelt. The paper reviews the limited role that statistical analysis presently plays in reservoir flood standards in the UK. Nowhere is the absence of a formal statistical approach more keenly felt than in the combination of extreme rainfall, snowmelt, antecedent condition and wind speeds used to estimate maximum flood levels. The approach of the DOE-funded Joint Probability Studies for Reservoir Flood Safety is described.