O’Connell, P.E., Brunsdon, G.P., Reed, D.W., Whitehead, P.G. 1986. Case studies in real-time hydrological forecasting from the UK. In: "River flow modelling and forecasting" (eds Kraijenhoff, D.A., Moll, J.R.), Reidel, Dordrecht, 195–240.
The developments which have taken place in the fields of electronic engineering and hydrological modelling over the past decade are now generating considerable operational benefits in the areas of flood warning, reservoir management and pollution control. On-line monitoring of rainfall, flow and water quality variables can now be achieved with reliable instrumentation and telemetry at modest cost: ever increasing advances in the performance of on-line monitoring schemes are being achieved through the exploitation of microprocessor technology. Dedicated low-cost microcomputers can be programmed to control telemetry schemes automatically while also providing the necessary computing power to run real-time flow and water quality forecasting models. Thus the capacity of the water engineer to respond efficiently and effectively to emergency situations created by flood or pollution events has been greatly enhanced. As more operational experience with this new technology is acquired, it is important that case studies are reported in the literature (and particularly presented in post-experience courses) to assist the practising engineer in choosing the instrumentation, telemetry, computer, and forecasting models appropriate for his particular problem.
The three case studies reported here will help to give an impression of how real-time forecasting has developed into an operational tool in the UK while also covering three completely different forecasting problems. The first of the three systems to be developed and implemented was that for the river Dee basin in North Wales; this system is of special interest since its commissioning in 1975 marked the culmination of an extensive research programme undertaken to explore the potential of weather radar and real-time hydrological forecasting in multipurpose reservoir management and control. The case study description presented here will focus more on the operational experience which has been acquired since implementation rather than on the details of the actual system implemented.
The second case study describes a real-time flood warning scheme installed in 1981 in a small catchment area east of Edinburgh in Scotland. This case study illustrates how modern microprocessor-based technology and simple rainfall-runoff modelling can be combined to produce a flood warning scheme which is inexpensive, automatic, flexible and reliable.
The third case study has as its focal point the real-time forecasting and control of water quality rather than water quantity. For the Bedford Ouse River in East Anglia, the objective of the real-time forecasting scheme installed in 1980 is to help protect water supply abstraction intakes along the river from accidental upstream discharges of pollutants. This forecasting system also represents the culmination of a previous extensive research programme to develop dynamic models of flow and water quality for use in water quality management.